Professor Ogenga Latigo, the leader of the opposition in the Ugandan parliament, is an entomologist. For that reason, every time his detractors cannot stand his brilliance in a debate, they take easy way out by describing him as a ‘Professor of Insects.’

Well, a while ago I had a conversation with Professor Latigo and sure enough, among other things, we discussed insects. I must confess that some of the theories he expounded upon were a bit complex for a non-professor like me but to put it briefly, he said that in the insect world, those species that had higher levels of internal competition tended to lose out or perish altogether in contests with species that suffered less internal competition.

The reason is simple. The energy of those species that compete fiercely with each other are wasted on the internal competition so much so that there is barely any spared to confront collective challenges. We applied this to countries and came up with some interesting results.

Tribe has become a very big thing in Uganda in recent times because how far you go in life has increasingly become dependent on where you come from or who you know. With this state of affairs, one would imagine that the larger ethnic groups, notably the Baganda, Basoga, Iteso, and so on, would be better placed to win in this race. It is not obvious however, going by the insect theory.

Individuals in these particular tribes are engaged in such cutthroat competition against each other that it would be a tall order for any of them to rise above the fray and survive long enough in any significant national role. It is what the Nigerians call the PHD (Pull Him Down) syndrome and it is rampant among the Bantu populations south and east of Lake Kyoga.

This competition involves all manner of devices ranging from the superstitious to physical elimination. The reality of this competition came home to me a few years ago when a colleague from eastern Ugandan trusted me with information that he had started construction of his house. But he did not want his village mate, who happened to be our mutual friend, to know.

With this kind of social reality, it is not surprising that the presidents who have led Uganda for any memorable length of time have come from outside central Uganda. Because of their collective perception of the southern populations, the northern Luo were able to pool their energies to keep Obote in power. Mobilized against a common threat in during the eighties, the southerners were able to wrest power from the north.

This collective perception of the north as a threat has allowed Museveni, a southerner to emerge as the longest serving post independence ruler Uganda has ever seen.

But more importantly, over the years, Museveni has been able to survive the PHD syndrome among the southerners because the Baganda, Basoga, et cetera spend the bulk of their time tearing each other up. On the other hand, with lower levels of internal competition, the Banyankole ethnic group have kept their sights on the bigger picture which is to survive against outside competition.

Often, the biggest task President Museveni has faced during his long tenure has been to try and protect his key appointees from their own tribesmen. So the biggest plotters against Vice-president Gilbert Bukenya are not from the north or west but from his own Baganda tribe.

Applied to geopolitics in the Great Lakes Region and Africa in general, one can argue that Rwanda’s recent ascendance to the top in many spheres is related to the RPF and President Kagame’s success in reducing the internal competition between Tutsis and Hutus in Rwanda. As a result, Rwanda is able to focus on the primary goal of survival as a nation. The country can mobilize the necessary effort to defend its interests and determine how it relates to the rest of the world.

On the other hand, her neighbors such as Uganda are struggling to make any meaningful strides because it is difficult to agree on a common agenda. So every step forward is often accompanied by two backward.

Going by the same theory, one can argue that Kenya, the East African Community’s largest economy, is in mortal danger if the politicians there don’t put their act together. While at some stage in the past, the intense political and economic competition between the Luo and Kikuyu benefitted ethnic minorities such as the Kalenjin who exploited that rivalry to establish themselves, this time round, Kenya as a whole is likely to be a loser. The violence that flared after the 2007 presidential elections is a pointer in this direction.

And all indications are that the principal actors in this gory drama have not learnt any lesson from that episode. Hopefully the rest of East Africa has and will put in place fall-back positions to avoid or lessen the pain that any disruption in Kenya would cause the hinterland countries that depend on this fragile corridor for vital economic supplies.

There is a clear three years between now and the next Kenyan election and within that time certain things can be done. If it were my decision to make, I would pursue two tracks. The first and cheaper one would be to exert diplomatic pressure on Kenyans to convince them that childish acts will not be tolerated by the rest of the region. Two, I would fast track at least one infrastructure project–work on the roads that connect Tanzania to Uganda and Rwanda.

Related articles

•    Kampala Dispatch: Just what will get Ugandans say enough to guns?

•    Kampala Dispatch: Kampala mulls following Kigali model on development

•    Kampala Dispatch: Throw Kampala City Council bums out of office